El Niño Is Coming: What Could It Mean for Your Garden This Summer?

If you've been hearing the words El Niño mentioned in the weather forecast lately, you might be wondering what it actually means, and whether it will make a difference to your garden.

New Zealand is currently experiencing the early stages of an El Niño event, with Earth Sciences New Zealand expecting it to strengthen and reach its peak during the 2026–27 summer. El Niño can influence New Zealand's weather patterns, although it doesn't mean every day or every region will experience the same conditions. For gardeners and homeowners, however, it's worth thinking ahead.

What is El Niño?

El Niño is part of a natural climate pattern called the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). It occurs when ocean temperatures in the tropical Pacific become warmer than usual, which influences atmospheric circulation and, in turn, weather patterns around the world. In New Zealand, El Niño is typically associated with more frequent or stronger westerly winds during summer. This can mean drier conditions for some parts of the country, particularly eastern areas, while western areas can experience more rainfall.

So, does El Niño mean we're guaranteed a hot, dry summer? Not necessarily.

El Niño influences the odds of certain weather patterns; it doesn't dictate exactly what the weather will be every day. That's why preparing your garden for a range of conditions is more useful than simply expecting a drought.

What could El Niño mean for your garden?

1. Your garden may dry out faster

More frequent westerly winds can increase moisture loss from soil and plants. If rainfall is also lower than usual, gardens can dry out quickly. Newly planted trees, shrubs and garden beds can be particularly vulnerable because their root systems haven't yet had time to establish. Good soil preparation and appropriate watering will become increasingly important if conditions are dry.

2. Watering techniques could become more important

If we experience a drier summer, simply watering whenever the garden looks dry isn't always the best approach. Deep, less frequent watering can encourage plants to develop stronger root systems, while mulch can help reduce evaporation from the soil. A well-designed irrigation system can also make it much easier to keep a garden healthy through dry periods without wasting water.

3. The right plants make a difference

A garden designed for the local climate is generally going to cope better with changing conditions. For properties around Kerikeri, choosing plants that are suited to Northland's climate and your particular site can help create a more resilient garden. That doesn't mean every garden needs to be drought-tolerant. It means considering factors such as sun exposure, soil type, drainage and how much water your plants are likely to need during summer.

4. Mulching becomes even more useful

Mulch isn't just about making a garden look tidy. A good layer of mulch helps protect the soil, reduce evaporation, suppress weeds and regulate soil temperatures. This can be particularly useful during a dry summer. It can also improve the soil over time as organic mulch breaks down.

5. Wind can cause problems too

El Niño isn't simply about rainfall. New Zealand's typical El Niño pattern includes stronger or more frequent westerly winds, which can create challenges for gardens.

Young trees and newly planted gardens can be particularly exposed. Strategic planting, windbreaks and thoughtful garden design can help protect more vulnerable areas.

6. Don't forget about drainage

It might seem strange to talk about drainage when we're discussing a potentially drier summer, but good drainage is important in every season. A dry summer doesn't mean there won't be heavy rainfall events. When dry or compacted soil receives a sudden large amount of rain, water may run off rather than soaking evenly into the ground.

Good landscaping considers both sides of the equation; how to manage excess water when it rains and how to retain moisture when conditions are dry.

How can you prepare your garden for summer?

There are plenty of things you can do now rather than waiting until the hottest part of summer. Consider:

• Checking your irrigation system

• Improving soil with organic matter

• Adding mulch to garden beds

• Planting trees and shrubs suited to your site

• Creating wind protection where needed

• Checking drainage before heavy rain arrives

• Improving garden levels where water tends to pool

• Choosing plants according to their water requirements

• Planning new landscaping before the summer rush

  
  

A well-planned garden should be able to cope with changing conditions rather than relying on perfect weather.

Making your garden more resilient

While we can't control the weather, good landscaping and gardening can help your outdoor space cope with it. From drainage and irrigation to planting, soil preparation and garden design, the decisions made when creating a garden can have a big impact on how much maintenance it needs later.

At Kererū Development, we design and build outdoor spaces with the conditions of each property in mind. Whether you're planning a new garden, improving an existing outdoor area or trying to make your garden more resilient to changing weather, thoughtful landscaping can make a real difference. With an El Niño summer ahead, now is a good time to look at your garden and ask: is it ready?

For homeowners in the Bay of Islands, preparing your garden before summer arrives can help you make the most of your outdoor space, whatever the weather brings.